Chantal bought this book ages ago at a church bazaar or rummage book sale, mostly as a sort of curio. I finally picked it up and read it the other day. The premise is pretty much spelled out by the title: a collection of essays penned by writers from the National Observer in early 1970, speculating on what was then the coming decade. Each chapter covers a different subject, and the topics are wide-ranging. Space exploration, the economy, politics, foreign policy, the environment each get a chapter, as do perhaps less expected fields, such as oceanography manners. One chapter predicts trends in the arts, and Vietnam, perhaps not surprisingly, gets a look in all to itself as well.
Having been born after the decade under speculation ended, it was interesting to look back at what the writers predicted, seeing where they were wildly off the mark and where they were prescient (sometimes almost eerily so). I could reflect more immediately on some chapters than others, based on my knowledge—it was pretty obvious what came true and what didn’t in the space and Viet Nam chapters, whereas in the medicine and oceanography chapters I could only say vaguely what came true and what didn’t (I know we have submersibles that can operate at 20,000 feet now, but did they begin operation in the 1970s as predicted? I have no idea).
Below, I’ve given a quick summary of what each chapter nailed and what it whiffed on, based on my recollections:
Space Exploration: called GPS and satellite imagery, but wildly optimistic on moon colonies (supposed to be in operation by 1979. Oops)
The Economy: no wild predictions, basically right on Keynesian Economics avoiding another depression.
Medicine: my big takeaway here was how much was still on the horizon in 1970. Organ transplants were in their infancy, as were antidepressants (Lithium was the new big thing). Not sure if they really took off in the seventies, but they were right on the general trend.
Foreign policy: more or less on target, except about Japan becoming a regional political power (they nailed it on their economic influence though).
Lifestyle: ranging from the insane (see-through body stocking with modesty patches) to the prescient (modular construction to cut down on home costs).
Vietnam: Humility in their predictions, as they made it clear they didn’t know, but erred on the optimistic side in assuming South Vietnam stood a chance.
The Arts: Another chapter of home runs and strikeouts. Pretty much predicted punk (“In underground music, I think you’ll get a return to root forms, a sort of new classic approach to rock”) but completely wrong on cinema (predicted the doom of major studios and the continued rise of small, meaningful films at the expense of big budget epics. Someone didn’t see Jaws and Star Wars coming, that’s for sure).
The environment: focused on pollution ,and right that it would be somewhat curbed. No sight of climate change yet.
Oceanography: We didn’t get bubble stations on the ocean floor, sadly. The other stuff seemed more or less right, though I can’t speak to the timeline.
Politics: Foresaw the death of the New Deal and the drift of the South, but prematurely buried the two-party system.
Education: nascent view of technology in schools.
Travel: They were right about trains in the US, that’s for sure.
Manners and Mores: Nothing too outré. Saw the slow decline of religiosity.
America’s Reputation: This was more about its current reputation than speculating on the future.
Not a bad grade, overall. A few big misses, but the writers were clearly thoughtful in their speculation. Not something I’m likely to reread, but was worth picking up for sure.